Vanguard has been making this same prediction EVERY year since 2013. At this point they gave a poorer track record than a broken clock.Vanguard made the same prediction in 2019 as well. The market has doubled since then.
Vanguard is expecting 10-year returns for US equities in the 3-5% range and ex-US in the 7-9% range. This is not at all based on any expected earth-shattering political or social events. It is based on a straightforward assessment that ex-US equity cashflows are more highly discounted, therefore expected returns are higher. Will those ex-US returns actually come through? Who knows. They are riskier, and that's what you are being compensated for.
Statistics: Posted by Hot Sauce — Wed Dec 25, 2024 1:08 pm