Let me be more specific. I think that the returns for money market funds will be close to bond funds. Maybe not as much but close enough.What has happened in the last five years tells you nothing about what will happen. You are sort of acknowledging that, and yet betting that it will be 'close'. You could be right or wrong, but if you are right, it will be by chance and not by logic because logic and reasoning are worthless....I ask: What has happened in the last five years, and what do I expect in the next five? Over the past five years, money market funds (VMRXX) have outperformed most long- and short-term bond funds (VBLAX, VBIRX, VSIGX). Will that trend continue? Probably not—but I’d bet the performance will be close.
But also, I'm not going all in for something like small cap value because it has historically out performed the S&P 500 on 'average' over the last 20 years. I'm asking what has it done in the last 5. How many of the last 5 years has it outperformed and why would I think it would outperform in the next 5 years. A good example is raw land. If you hold it for 20 years it may be a good investment but over 5 years maybe not...depends. The value moves in random jumps depending on growth and economics in the area.
If someone presents me with an opportunity that is only 'positive' after 10 years, or only once every 10 years then I'm not interested.
Statistics: Posted by Buzzman — Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:48 pm