^ This is the problem. Setting an AA based on a very conservative outlook (or a survey, or your feelings about what you can handle) -- and keeping it static regardless of how yields change around you or your cashflow outlook -- is not optimal. You're giving up expected return and/or taking on more risk than you need to, pretty much at all times.It could be useful to temper one's expectations of getting high returns, I suppose, but I don't think too many Bogleheads PLAN on getting high or even average returns. We certainly hope to, but our plans are usually more conservative.
Just like we plan around the (so far) historical worst case in retirement that had low returns (that's where the 4% SWR comes from), it makes sense to plan around low returns all the time in accumulation as well.
Statistics: Posted by Circle the Wagons — Wed Dec 11, 2024 10:37 am