I don't think I'm overthinking this. Using the PV Monte Carlo tool, there is also about a 40% chance the portfolio (10MM drawing 500K inflation adjusted for 45 years at 50% stocks, 35% total bond and your 15% cash) doesn't last 45 years (retiring at age 50 and living to 95).Not to be disrespectful but why would you use a confusing tool like the one you suggested when you can use the Monte Carlo tool itself?
Use this tool to pressure test your assumptions (asset allocation/savings/portfolio withdrawals for a long retirement): https://tpawplanner.com/
Based upon the limited information you've provided, it seems you will not be able to generate a "steady" 500K income (to fund both taxes and non-tax spending) when you retire at age 50.
The results I get from the real MC (not the one your tool says it based its assumptions) shows he will be just fine at 5%, not adjusting for inflation. Some of us don’t need to adjust upwards every year for inflation because of a number of potential future events and/or the income is way more than we need to live.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... sisResults
VWENX/VWIAX 50/50 with three years in cash reserve does just fine…
I think you guys are overthinking this…
John
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... tMyArW60oW
Statistics: Posted by dogagility — Thu Dec 26, 2024 1:25 pm