Leaving aside the historical question of whether the Roman Empire actually only lasted 500 years, the probability calculation assumes that the probability of failure was uniformly distributed across the years in question. That almost surely was not the case.Dr. Bernstein systematically emphasizes outsized risks. Should we agree? He notes that the Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, and with a hypothetical human lifetime of 85 years, the average Roman had raw statistical probability of living through the collapse, of 85/500 = 17%.
Statistics: Posted by Northern Flicker — Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:06 pm
