The number doesn’t include the U.S. It’s specifically referring to international stock returns. Please see the chart a little higher up on this page that I posted from the study.
8. The claim of 7% real returns for international stocks seems unrealistic when compared to historical data. this number includes the US and seems reasonable based on other sources I've seen like Jeremy Siegel in "Stocks for the Long Run"
The claim of 7% real return for international stocks since 1890 isn’t reasonable. International stocks have had a nominal return of 4.95% since 1988 as seen from the Portfolio Visualizer chart I posted on the previous page.
To achieve an overall 7.03% real return from 1890 to 2023, international stocks would need to have had exceptionally high real returns before 1988, probably in the 8.5-9% range, despite the economic devastation from two world wars.
Statistics: Posted by Billy C — Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:13 pm